#1 – Survivorship Bias

“In daily life, because triumph is made more visible than failure, you systematically overestimate your chances of success”.

That, according to the author of The Art of Thinking Clearly, Mr. Rolf Dobelli, is the Survivorship Bias.

That we tend to overestimate the chances of our success by ignoring the failed cases or the risks involved in the undertaking.

A lot of people make this logical error. For example, if you are the person who aspires to be a multimillionaire by writing fiction, then you obviously have ignored the fact that behind every best selling author are hundreds who didn’t do so well. And waiting in line behind each of these duds are authors whose manuscripts never saw daylight. And as we walk farther down the dark alleys, stepping over the rotting carcasses of failed scripts, we can meet thousands of wannabes, who haven’t finished their scripts or are aspiring to write their first multimillion making debut novel.

Pop.

Did you hear that?That’s the sound the author wants to hear.It’s the sound of your bubbles bursting.

Nobody blames you. When all else fails, blame it on the media.The bias is exacerbated by the success hungry media.Media nowadays are interested only in millions and millionaires. They seldom talk about the failures. Unless, it is a million dollar failure. The readers or viewers of such biased, skewed, one sided reports are falsely led to believe that they too can make it big. Unfortunately, it is not the media’s job to dig for the failures. They are not the keepers of the universal balance. That task, the heavy lifting, has to be borne by you –  The seeker of truth.

Have I piqued your interest yet? Or at the least, have I pricked your emotional bubble with a rational pin?

Pop? Yup, that’s what I want to hear.

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